Can Bitcoin Get Back Above $85,000 in November?

Bitcoin recently came close to reaching the $85,000 mark, falling just $150 short before sellers intervened. As of October 24, the cryptocurrency's price was $80,530, reflecting a 3.5% decline for the month. During the week, Bitcoin fluctuated between a high of $84,856 and a low of $80,401, as it continues to test the resistance level at $85,000, having previously peaked at $87,249 over the last 30 days.

On the October 17 episode of The Pomp Podcast, host Anthony Pompliano mentioned that Bitcoin had been trading within the $82,000 to $85,000 range while stock prices were experiencing a downturn. Since that time, Bitcoin has fallen below that range, raising questions about its ability to recover above $85,000 in November and the factors that would facilitate such a move.

To reclaim the $85,000 level, Bitcoin must first overcome four significant price barriers. Currently, it is trading below both its 50-day average of $81,776 and its 20-day average of $82,826. These moving averages represent the average closing prices over specific periods, and closing above them typically indicates that buyers are gaining momentum. Bitcoin also needs to surpass the October opening price of $83,556, which is 3.8% higher than its current value, to negate its losses for the month. Additionally, it must break through the weekly high of $84,856, where sellers have previously entered the market.

Analysts suggest that a single strong trading day could enable Bitcoin to breach these levels. However, traders who purchased at these points may choose to sell once they reach breakeven, potentially limiting any upward momentum. An analyst known as Financelot noted on October 23 that Bitcoin might have reached its low earlier than anticipated and is currently struggling to surpass its 60-week average.

Historically, November has been a month of both gains and losses for Bitcoin. In November 2024, the cryptocurrency opened at $70,347 and closed at $96,436, marking a substantial 37.1% increase. In contrast, November 2025 saw Bitcoin open at $109,556, drop to $80,525, and ultimately close at $90,370, resulting in a 17.5% loss.

Another factor influencing Bitcoin's price is the performance of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have recently experienced significant outflows. On October 22, these ETFs recorded net outflows of $635.6 million, indicating that investors withdrew more than they invested. The iShares Bitcoin Trust also saw an outflow of $110.3 million on October 23. Yet, these funds can change direction quickly; on October 19 and 21, there were inflows of $526.6 million and $528.4 million, respectively. Currently, cumulative net inflows stand at $57.3 billion, and a few days of strong inflows could indicate renewed buying interest that may help push Bitcoin over the $85,000 threshold.

High oil prices and a weak performance in technology stocks are contributing to the downward pressure on Bitcoin. On October 20, WTI crude oil, the U.S. benchmark, was priced at $108 per barrel, having risen by 13.1% in a week after reaching a peak of $110 on October 19. This increase in oil prices adds to inflationary concerns, which often negatively affect speculative assets like Bitcoin. The market is also reacting to rising oil prices amid concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East, while the Invesco QQQ Trust saw a 5% decline over the month leading up to October 23. Bitcoin tends to follow the performance of tech stocks, particularly during uncertain market conditions.

On a more positive note, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds fell to 4.96% on October 22, down from 5.31% on October 5. Lower yields typically make riskier assets like Bitcoin more attractive to investors.

Looking ahead, the upcoming elections on November 3 could either stabilize or disrupt the markets. As of now, Polymarket indicates a 91.5% probability that the Democratic Party will retain control of the House and a 67.5% chance of winning the Senate. If the election results align with these predictions, market uncertainty may decrease. However, unexpected outcomes could lead to increased volatility. The VIX, a measure of market volatility, rose to 19 on October 22, reflecting a 15.6% increase over the week and signaling a level of market anxiety.

Ultimately, while it is conceivable that Bitcoin could surpass $85,000 in November—representing a 5.6% increase from its current value—sustaining that level may prove challenging without a positive shift in ETF inflows. For Bitcoin to regain this level, it must first overcome the moving averages, then achieve a series of positive inflow days following the election results. It also needs to close above the October opening price of $83,556 and break through the $84,856 resistance, all while oil prices remain below $100. Conversely, if Bitcoin closes below the 30-day low of $79,676, a recovery to $85,000 could be delayed until December or later.