Ethereum Analysis: Exchanges Took In 100,000 ETH This Week as Big Holders Sold. Is $2,000 Next?

This week, Ethereum witnessed a significant sell-off by its largest holders, commonly known as "whales," leading to a notable increase in the balance of coins on exchanges. According to data from Santiment, these large wallets offloaded approximately 160,000 ETH, valued at over $348 million. Concurrently, exchange balances swelled by about 100,000 ETH, which traders often interpret as an indication of growing selling pressure in the market.

Despite the substantial selling activity, the price of ETH remained relatively stable, hovering around $2,351, with a slight increase of 0.81% in the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency has managed to stay above its recent 30-day low of approximately $2,321, recorded on October 26, 2026. However, it has experienced a decline of 12.4% in October alone and a significant drop of 20.8% since the beginning of the year.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has pointed out that if Ethereum continues to trade below $2,385 while exchange balances remain elevated, it could signal a potential drop toward the critical support level of $2,000, a price point that ETH has tested previously. Currently, ETH is trading below $2,385, raising concerns about whether the recent whale sell-off is indicative of a larger supply issue or if the on-chain data presents a less alarming scenario.

Traders closely monitor the metrics provided by Santiment, which differentiate between wallet balances held by individual users and those held by exchanges. Their tracking of exchange balances reveals the total amount of ETH held in exchange wallets, while the large-holder metric reflects the total ETH held by significant wallets. An increase in coins deposited to exchanges is typically seen as a precursor to selling, as these coins must be converted to cash before being sold. A decrease in whale balances during the same timeframe often suggests that major holders may be liquidating their positions, which is generally interpreted as a bearish signal.

However, the influx of 100,000 ETH to exchanges may not necessarily indicate impending sell-offs. While it often precedes sales, it could also signify an institutional investor depositing ETH for safekeeping or a market maker increasing its inventory. Additionally, some of these deposits might be utilized as collateral for derivatives trading, which could support either bullish or bearish positions, making it difficult to determine the market sentiment based solely on collateral movements.

Moreover, the whale metric has its own limitations. A large wallet could redistribute its holdings across several smaller addresses, resulting in a diminished count of large holders without any actual sales taking place. Some wallets associated with exchanges or funds could lead to a double-counting effect, further complicating the interpretation of the data.

Most trading activity occurs within exchange order books and is not recorded on the blockchain, meaning that Santiment can track the arrival of coins on exchanges but cannot identify who is purchasing them. Price movements provide clearer insights; had 100,000 ETH flooded the order books, a decline in price below the low of October 26 would have likely occurred. Instead, the price remained stable, indicating that buyers may have absorbed the supply rather than allowing it to accumulate on exchanges.

Another indicator of selling pressure is the outflow from spot Ether ETFs, which have seen significant losses recently. According to SoSoValue, these funds lost $170.2 million in the week ending October 26, 2026. When investors redeem ETF shares, the issuers are required to sell ETH to fulfill these redemptions, which typically transits through exchange-linked custody. This represents actual selling activity, and since ETF data is tracked separately from on-chain figures, the two metrics together provide a more comprehensive view of market dynamics.

Outflows from ETF funds have continued unabated, with SoSoValue reporting $21.4 million leaving the funds on October 28, and $60.2 million on October 27, following a significant $220.6 million outflow the previous week. The total net inflow has decreased from $13.95 billion on September 29 to $12.55 billion by October 28, with only a few positive trading days since late September.

While one trader recently took a bullish stance, opening a $45 million long position betting on an increase in ETH's price, this move contrasts sharply with the ongoing trend of ETF outflows, which reflect consistent investor withdrawals. Ethereum's next network upgrade, Glamsterdam, remains without a definitive launch date, although developers merged a fix for validator deposits on October 27. The timeline for the Hoodi testnet, which serves as a testing ground for upgrades, is still pending.

Currently, Ethereum faces resistance at the $2,390 mark, with its 20-day moving average around $2,424 and the 50-day average higher at approximately $2,537. Support levels are positioned at $2,290, $2,276, $2,200, and $2,100, while the 200-day average lies near $2,159. Analysts are eyeing the potential for ETH to target the $2,000 mark, especially if it breaks through the $2,200 support level. To reach this target, ETH must navigate below $2,290, $2,276, and $2,200, followed by the 200-day average at $2,159, and eventually $2,100, each of which could present opportunities for buyers to re-enter the market.

The $2,000 target appears achievable, considering that ETH traded as low as approximately $1,843 on August 1, 2026, a price range that has been tested within the last three months. While on-chain data has its limitations, a combination of trackable indicators could provide a clearer picture in the coming weeks. If Ethereum experiences another week of ETF outflows nearing $170.2 million, it would indicate selling pressure, making the $2,000 target increasingly likely. Conversely, a series of daily inflows could counteract the bearish sentiment currently dominating the market.