Polymarket US Launches 5-Minute Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP Predictions

Polymarket US has launched a new feature that allows users to engage in 5-minute binary options prediction contracts for major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP. This introduction comes as Polymarket successfully re-entered the US market under the regulation of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), following its acquisition of QCX LLC in July 2025 for $112 million. This acquisition provided Polymarket with an existing license, enabling it to offer these derivatives legally after previously facing challenges that led to a $1.4 million fine and the cessation of its US operations in 2020.

The newly launched contracts function as a binary options market, where users can predict whether the price of a cryptocurrency will go up or down within a five-minute timeframe. Correct predictions will result in a payout of $1 per contract. To ensure fairness and reduce the risk of last-minute price manipulation, the settlement for these contracts is based on Chainlink's 60-second Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP), which averages the cryptocurrency's price during the last minute before the contract expires. In cases where there is a tie, where the predicted price is the same as the initial price, the outcome will favor the "up" position.

Polymarket initially entered the US market in 2020 but had to cease operations due to regulatory issues. The platform's return marks a significant shift in its strategy to provide legally compliant prediction markets. Earlier this month, Polymarket US also introduced contracts with longer durations, including 15-minute, hourly, and daily predictions, culminating in today’s rollout of the 5-minute options.

In the broader landscape of prediction markets, Polymarket is primarily focused on cryptocurrencies and pop culture events, while its competitor, Kalshi, has made significant strides in capturing consumer volume in the US. Launched legally in 2020, Kalshi has established itself with a five-year head start and has formed partnerships with major financial platforms such as Robinhood, Coinbase, and Webull. Kalshi's offerings cover a wide range of events beyond cryptocurrencies, including sports, economic indicators, and weather events, which has helped it attract deep institutional liquidity.

Despite being federally regulated by the CFTC, both Polymarket and Kalshi face challenges at the state level. Several states, including Nevada and Minnesota, have imposed complete bans on prediction market platforms, while others like Washington and Michigan have prohibited sports-related contract trading. States such as New York, Texas, and California are also actively scrutinizing the operations of prediction markets, which could impact the future growth of these platforms.

As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, Polymarket’s latest offerings aim to attract both traders and casual users interested in making quick predictions on market movements. By leveraging innovative technology and regulatory compliance, Polymarket seeks to carve out a niche in the competitive landscape of prediction markets.

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