Shanghai Second-Hand Housing Prices Stop Falling: Latest Market Trends & 2024 Real Estate Recovery Update

Recent data from the national housing market, covering 70 cities, has spotlighted Shanghai, which has emerged as a leader in a potential recovery of the real estate sector. For the first time in 32 months, Shanghai reported a year-on-year increase in second-hand residential prices, indicating a positive shift in the market.

According to research conducted by Puru Smart Digital, the third quarter of this year showcased signs of stabilization in Shanghai’s second-hand housing market. The average transaction price for these properties was recorded at 44,527 yuan per square meter, reflecting a modest decline of 1% year-on-year and a slight decrease of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. This stabilization is notable when compared to the previous year, which saw a much steeper decline of 11.3% in the same quarter. The reduction in the year-on-year price drop from double digits to around 1% suggests that the downward trend in prices has been effectively halted.

Furthermore, the average transaction price has exhibited a gradual increase over the past three quarters. It fell to a low of 41,670 yuan per square meter in December 2025 but rebounded to 44,518 yuan per square meter by September 2026, marking a 6.8% increase from the previous low. In contrast, the average listing price for second-hand residential properties continued its downward trajectory, dropping to 53,751 yuan per square meter, a decline of 6.6% year-on-year and 1.6% quarter-on-quarter.

Despite the ongoing decrease in average listing prices, the average transaction price has stabilized, resulting in a narrowing gap between the two figures. This disparity decreased from 12,552 yuan per square meter in the third quarter of 2025 to 9,224 yuan per square meter in the latest quarter, a reduction of 26.5%.

Analyzing the transaction prices across various segments reveals that the overall market stabilized in the third quarter. Properties priced below 3 million yuan remained unchanged, while those priced between 3 million and 5 million yuan saw a slight decline of 0.3%. Conversely, properties valued between 5 million and 7 million yuan increased by 2.2%, whereas those priced between 7 million and 10 million yuan experienced a minor decrease of 0.4%.

Examining the market by property size, smaller units under 70 square meters saw a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.9%, while larger properties over 200 square meters fell by 2.1%. This trend highlights a general pattern where lower-priced properties have faced the most significant declines in the past year—properties under 3 million yuan saw a cumulative drop of 9.4% from the first to the fourth quarter of 2025.

A key indicator of market sentiment is the discount rate, which reflects the average transaction price relative to the average listing price. This rate fell to a low of 71.9% in October 2025, indicating that homes were sold at a significant discount. However, by September 2026, the discount rate improved to 82.4%, an increase of nearly 11 percentage points within a year. The average discount rate in the third quarter also rose by 4.7 percentage points from the previous year, reaching 83% compared to 78% in the same period last year.

Three notable trends emerged from the third quarter's transaction data. First, sellers have become less prone to cutting prices repeatedly, with the average number of price adjustments dropping by 63% year-on-year, reaching the lowest level since 2024. Second, the efficiency of property viewings improved significantly, with the average number of viewings per month decreasing to 114,000, a 41% decline from the previous year. This coincided with a rise in second-hand residential transactions, indicating that buyers are making decisions more swiftly without excessive comparisons. Lastly, the average transaction cycle for second-hand homes was recorded at 106.3 days, down 4% year-on-year and 14% compared to the previous quarter, with September marking the shortest average transaction cycle since January 2024.

Overall, the third quarter of 2026 reflects a stabilization in Shanghai's second-hand residential market, characterized by improved transaction dynamics and a shift in buyer and seller expectations.