The Low-Total-Price Segment of Beijing's Second-Hand Property Market Is Ebbing

In the third quarter of 2023, the second-hand residential property market in Beijing has experienced notable shifts. For the first time, the low-total-price housing units, which have driven transaction volumes for the past three years, are witnessing a significant decline. Conversely, properties priced over 7 million yuan have seen an increase, bucking the overall trend.

Another key development is that the volume of listings, which had been on a downward trajectory for seven consecutive months, rebounded in September. The average number of listed second-hand homes in Beijing during the third quarter was about 108,300, reflecting a 23.2% decrease compared to the same period last year. The listings had dropped from 132,900 units in February to just 107,800 units by August, marking a cumulative decrease of 25,100 units. However, in September, the number of listings increased slightly to 109,100 units, representing a month-on-month rise of 1.1%, indicating a halt in the declining trend that had persisted since 2026.

In terms of transactions, 41,525 second-hand residential units were sold in the third quarter, which is a 3.7% increase year-on-year, although it was down 11.9% from the previous quarter. This decline is understandable, as the second quarter saw a peak with 47,154 units sold—the highest in seven quarters since 2025. Thus, the drop in transactions during the third quarter can be viewed as a correction following the surge in the previous quarter. Compared to last year, the number of transactions remains positive and exceeds the 40,000-unit threshold recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of this year.

The decrease in listings combined with stable transaction levels suggests that low-priced housing units, which have been suppressed for the past two years, are being purchased, while the availability of newly listed units, particularly in the low-price segment, is declining.

Examining the pricing dynamics, it is clear that buyers still hold significant bargaining power. The average transaction price for second-hand residential properties in Beijing during the third quarter was 41,310 yuan per square meter, down 11.8% from the previous year and 3.5% from the previous month. The average listing price was 51,484 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8.5% and a month-on-month drop of 1.9%. The disparity between transaction prices and listing prices has widened, indicating that while listing prices are stabilizing, transaction prices continue to fall. This is evident from the average price gap, which increased from 9,692 yuan in the second quarter to 10,174 yuan in the third quarter, and reached 10,930 yuan in September—the second highest since 2024.

This trend is quite different from the earlier "mini spring peak" earlier in the year when listing prices were decreasing sharply and moving closer to transaction prices. Currently, the slowdown in listing price declines alongside ongoing reductions in transaction prices suggests that sellers may be nearing their psychological limits for price reductions. Future downward pressure on transaction prices is likely to stem from buyers' negotiations, placing the balance of power firmly in their hands.

The composition of listed properties further illustrates this trend. For homes priced below 3 million yuan, the average total price per unit rose from 1.808 million yuan last year to 1.938 million yuan, a 7.2% increase. In contrast, the average total price for homes in the 10 million to 30 million yuan range fell from 15.519 million yuan to 14.999 million yuan, a decrease of 3.3%. This indicates that higher-priced properties are entering the lower-price segment, leading to better quality homes being available at similar total price points, which helps explain the ongoing decline in unit prices within the low total price segment.

Perhaps the most significant change this quarter is in the transaction structure. The proportion of homes sold for under 3 million yuan decreased from 73.6% in the second quarter to 68.3% in the third quarter, marking a drop of 5.3 percentage points month-on-month and 1.9 percentage points year-on-year. In terms of unit numbers, 28,349 homes were sold in this price tier, an 18.3% decline from the previous quarter but a slight year-on-year increase of 0.8%.

In contrast, the medium to high price segments are performing better. The number of units sold in the 5 million to 7 million yuan range increased by 9.3% year-on-year, with 2,832 units traded. The 7 million to 10 million yuan tier saw a 27.7% increase with 1,477 units sold, while the 10 million to 30 million yuan tier experienced a substantial 36.7% rise, totaling 1,001 units. The proportions of these three tiers have collectively risen to 12.8%, reflecting a 1.6 percentage point increase compared to the same period in 2025. Overall, the total increase in transaction volume across the city was 3.7%, with nearly all of this growth attributed to properties priced above 7 million yuan.