Ethereum Price Prediction: Where Could ETH Be by the End of October?

The price of Ethereum (ETH) has experienced a decline of 12% this October, as outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) increase and the anticipated major upgrade remains uncertain. The potential for ETH to recover before the end of the month depends on maintaining or breaking through critical price levels.

As of October 24, Ethereum requires a 13.7% increase within the next week to return to its opening price of $2,684 for October. Achieving this target would help mitigate the losses incurred this month. Currently, ETH is trading at $2,361, down from a peak of $2,777 on October 2 and a low of $2,313 on October 15. This price is also 52.3% lower than its all-time high.

With around 122.2 million ETH in circulation, the market capitalization of Ethereum is approximately $288.5 billion. If the price reaches the $2,684 mark, the market value would increase to about $327.9 billion. Unlike many cryptocurrencies, Ethereum lacks a fixed supply cap, as validators are rewarded with new ETH to secure the network. This means that the same price level can signify different market values across various cycles. For instance, if ETH were to revisit its all-time high of $4,946, the market cap would be around $604.2 billion at current supply levels.

During October, spot Ether ETFs, which track the actual value of ETH, have seen significant net withdrawals. According to SoSoValue, U.S. spot Ether ETFs recorded net outflows of $110.5 million as of October 22, with only two days in the month witnessing net inflows—October 13 and October 21. The most substantial outflow occurred on October 6, when investors withdrew $201.9 million, coinciding with a notable 9.1% price drop from October 5 to October 8. This trend of ETF selling has likely contributed to the downward pressure on ETH, particularly in the early part of the month. Overall, cumulative net inflows fell from $13.96 billion on September 28 to $12.71 billion by October 22, reflecting a decrease of approximately $1.25 billion in less than a month.

Meanwhile, Ethereum's upcoming upgrade, Glamsterdam, has been delayed. The Ethereum Foundation announced on October 22 that the upgrade on the Hoodi test network, originally scheduled for October 26, would not proceed as planned. Developers require additional time to review EIP-8037, a proposal that alters how gas fees interact with existing smart contracts, which also delays a planned increase in gas limits. No new date for the upgrade has been confirmed, and historically, past upgrades have not significantly impacted ETH prices.

On a more positive note, Bitmine Immersion Technologies, a public company that invests in Ethereum, reported holding 6.04 million ETH as of October 19, valued at approximately $14.3 billion at the current price. This amount represents nearly 5% of the total supply. Although Bitmine's acquisition of ETH provides a stable holding perspective, it has not prevented the token from declining by 12% throughout October.

When assessing price trends, support levels indicate where buyers typically enter the market, while resistance levels mark areas where selling pressure tends to increase. For ETH, the first support level is at $2,349, aligning with the low recorded during the week of October 19. The 30-day low of $2,313 serves as the next support level, about 2% below the current price. On the other hand, the first resistance level is around $2,491, which is approximately 5.5% above the current price, represented by the 20-day moving average. ETH has closed above this level only once since October 12, with the weekly high reaching $2,524 and the 50-day average at $2,548 closely behind.

Looking ahead, predictions for Ethereum’s price at the end of October suggest that it may close between $2,313 and $2,548. A return to the $2,684 opening price appears unlikely due to ongoing ETF sell-offs and the uncertain timeline for the Glamsterdam upgrade. For those holding ETH, the month is likely to conclude on a negative note, with prices expected to settle significantly below the initial $2,684. To approach the higher end of these predictions, a shift in ETF flows from withdrawals to consistent inflows will be necessary, along with overcoming resistance levels at $2,491 and $2,548. However, if the trend of withdrawals continues at the rate observed on October 22, ETH may fall below the $2,349 support level, retesting the $2,313 mark, which could lead to new monthly lows before October 31.