Halloween candy sales are off to a slow start amid high chocolate prices and affordability concerns

This year's Halloween candy sales have started slowly, as American consumers face rising living expenses and soaring chocolate prices. According to market research firm NielsenIQ, candy sales for the month ending October 17 dropped by 6.7% compared to the same timeframe last year. Additionally, Nielsen reported an 11.7% decrease in candy sales during mid-September, reversing the positive trends seen in the lead-up to Halloween over the previous two years.

Chris Costagli, a vice president at NielsenIQ, highlighted that the high cost of gasoline has intensified concerns about affordability among Americans, which in turn has affected demand for Halloween confections. As of last Friday, the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S. stood at $4.29, marking an increase of nearly 40% from the previous year.

"What we’re seeing now is a consumer who is spending significantly more on fuel, housing, clothing, and food," Costagli explained. "Some of the decisions they’re making regarding Halloween candy stem from not just noticing higher prices, but from a lack of financial flexibility to purchase it this year due to increased costs in other areas."

According to Costagli, only small bags of candy have experienced sales growth up to mid-October, while larger bags have seen the most significant declines in sales. Over recent years, candy prices in the U.S. have been rising at a pace that outstrips general inflation. Government statistics indicate that candy and gum prices surged by 44% over a five-year span, while the overall prices for food consumed at home increased by 22.5% during the same period.

This week, discount retailer Aldi promoted a 135-piece variety pack of Mars Inc. chocolate bars—including Milky Way, Trix, and Snickers—priced at $19.87. This is nearly equivalent to the price consumers paid five years ago for a 250-piece variety pack.

The primary factor behind rising prices is cocoa costs. In January 2025, global cocoa prices hit an all-time high of $10,710 per metric ton due to adverse weather conditions in West Africa, which produces 70% of the world's chocolate, along with speculative trading in cocoa futures. Although cocoa prices fell to $3,241 per metric ton in March, they have begun to rise again due to disruptions in fertilizer supplies caused by the ongoing conflict in Iran. Additionally, the El Niño weather pattern is anticipated to negatively impact production, with hot and dry conditions expected to persist through February.

Despite some prices being lower than last year's figures, consumer demand remains subdued. Nielsen data shows that the average price for non-chocolate Halloween candies, such as gummies and lollipops, was $6.08 per pound in the nine weeks leading up to October 17, roughly 3% lower than the previous year. However, this reduction did not translate into increased sales.

Sally Lyons Wyatt, a global executive vice president and food industry consultant at Circana, observed that many U.S. consumers are adapting to rising grocery prices by making smaller, more frequent shopping trips and purchasing items just before use. This behavior raises the possibility that shoppers might be postponing their candy purchases until closer to Halloween.

"People are being very intentional and thoughtful about their consumption choices, not just during holidays but in general," she stated. "While I do anticipate continued softness in candy sales, I don’t believe that Halloween is entirely lost."

The National Confectioners Association, which represents candy manufacturers such as Mars, Smarties Candy Co., and Ferrara Candy Co., expressed optimism about Halloween sales. "We are just entering the peak period for Halloween, and consumer enthusiasm remains incredibly strong," the organization stated on Friday.