PC Sales Just Crashed 21% as AI Eats the World’s Memory Chips

On October 22, 2026, Counterpoint Research unveiled preliminary figures indicating a significant decline in global PC shipments, which dropped by 21% year-over-year in the third quarter, totaling 57 million units. This figure represents the number of units shipped into the sales channel, rather than direct consumer purchases. Counterpoint attributed this downturn to rising memory and component costs, which have resulted in increased prices for PCs, subsequently stifling demand.

In the aftermath of the report, stock prices of major companies showed minimal fluctuations on October 23, 2026. HP saw a slight decrease of 0.36%, closing at $33.64, while Dell Technologies experienced a modest increase of 0.77%, reaching $456.44. Micron Technology's stock rose by 2.46%, closing at $877.55.

Three different research firms reported similar trends in PC shipments, albeit with varying totals. Gartner recorded 55.4 million shipments, reflecting a 22.4% decline from 71.3 million units, while IDC reported 62.7 million shipments, marking a 20.1% drop from 78.5 million. Counterpoint also noted a 13.8% decrease from the previous quarter and anticipated a 27% year-over-year decline in shipments for the fourth quarter, along with stagnant volumes expected in 2027.

Among the leading manufacturers, HP experienced the most significant decline, with shipments falling by 31% to 10.3 million units. Dell's shipments decreased by 25% to 7.6 million, and Lenovo, the market leader, saw a 23% drop to 15 million units. Apple, which shipped 11% fewer Macs, managed to increase its market share from 8.7% to 9.8%, a shift attributed to the popularity of its more affordable MacBook Neo, suggesting that price sensitivity among consumers is a key factor.

The rise in PC prices is closely linked to the increasing demand for memory chips driven by AI servers. TrendForce reported on September 30, 2026, that the demand for server memory would likely push conventional DRAM contract prices up by 10% to 15%, and NAND flash prices by 15% to 20% in the fourth quarter. Because AI servers require significantly more memory than standard PCs, memory manufacturers are prioritizing production for these higher-margin server chips. Consequently, PC manufacturers are left to pay more for the limited supply that remains, leading to increased prices for consumers and prompting many to postpone upgrading their devices.

Additional factors contributing to the decline in PC sales include a surge in purchases during the previous year, driven by consumers buying ahead of the Windows 10 support deadline and stockpiling due to tariffs. IDC analyst Jitesh Ubrani also noted that strong sales in the first half of the previous year inflated the figures.

HP relies heavily on its PC business, and while its Personal Systems revenue rose by 18%, unit shipments fell by 16%, resulting in a narrowing operating margin from 5.4% to 4.6%. HP's stock is currently trading near its 52-week high of $36.23, with investors hoping that price increases will compensate for the loss in volume.

Dell, in contrast, operates in both the PC and AI server markets, reporting a substantial backlog of $95 billion in AI server orders. The company has stated that it is strategically reallocating its resources towards its infrastructure business. Micron, benefiting from higher contract prices, has a market valuation of approximately $992.88 billion, although its stock remains below its 52-week high of $1,255.00, and a contracting PC market poses challenges for its customer base.

For investors in PC stocks, there are mixed signals. Some argue that rising prices could help sustain margins and revenue despite falling unit sales. However, Counterpoint's David Naranjo cautioned against interpreting stabilization as a sign of recovery. Dell appears to be in a stronger position, with PCs constituting a smaller fraction of its overall value and having preferential access to memory for its server business. In contrast, HP's reliance on PC sales makes it more vulnerable, especially as memory costs continue to climb.

The upcoming fiscal report from HP, expected around November 24, 2026, will be critical. If the report indicates a rebound in the Personal Systems margin above 4.6% and the stock price exceeds $36.23, it could challenge the current perspective on HP's market position.

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