Shenzhen Land Floor Price Exceeds 100,000 Yuan/Sqm Repeatedly: Second-Hand Home Owners Hike Prices by Up to 1.5 Million Yuan

In Shenzhen's second-hand housing market, a complex landscape of fluctuating prices is emerging. As the "Golden September" season unfolds, some homeowners are increasing their asking prices by as much as 1.5 million yuan, while others are reducing their prices significantly after lengthy periods on the market. For instance, one property that was previously listed at 23 million yuan has seen its price drop to 20 million yuan after two years. This divergence in pricing reflects a broader uncertainty among buyers, with some hesitating for fear of further price declines, while others are willing to pay a premium for sought-after property types.

This dynamic is set against a backdrop of rising land prices in Shenzhen. Since the beginning of the year, the city has seen a series of high-value residential land sales, with some plots commanding floor prices above 90,000 yuan per square meter, and the highest reaching over 100,000 yuan per square meter. These elevated land costs are influencing market expectations for the prices of new homes, and they are also fostering optimism among some second-hand property owners regarding future valuations.

The supply of new homes in Shenzhen has been on the decline. During the first nine months of this year, approximately 20,400 new residential units were made available, a decrease of about 10,000 units compared to the previous year. Changes in policies governing completed property sales are also prompting real estate developers to reassess their financial strategies and development timelines.

As land prices continue to rise and new home availability dwindles, the question arises: can developers transform these high land acquisition costs into correspondingly high selling prices? Who will ultimately bear the financial burden of these increases?

Xiao Xiaoping, the Dean of the Shenzhen Shell Research Institute, has noted that some newer residential projects in areas like Qianhai have experienced price increases of around 10% since the start of the year. This trend is attributed to the recent surge in high-priced land sales in Qianhai and Baozhong, as well as demand generated by the relocation of Tencent. In June, C&D Real Estate secured a residential land parcel in Guiwan, Qianhai, for 3.525 billion yuan, reflecting a remarkable premium rate of 114.29% and a transaction floor price of approximately 95,900 yuan per square meter. Comparatively, this price exceeds that of a nearby plot acquired by China Merchants Shekou by nearly 10,000 yuan per square meter.

The impact of these high land prices is already visible in buyer behavior. Yu Lang, the business district manager at Lianjia’s Qianhai Flagship Store, reported an uptick in customer interest following C&D's land acquisition, with two to three groups of potential buyers visiting properties weekly. Many buyers express awareness of the new land prices during their property searches.

Yu Lang emphasized that the anticipated selling prices for newly developed properties are setting new benchmarks for second-hand homes in the area. He noted that since the beginning of the year, some units in newer residential projects such as Runfengfu and Tianjing have seen price hikes of approximately 7% to 13%. Properties with unique features, such as those with additional windows or sea views, are particularly in demand. For example, a specific unit type in Runfengfu that offers a sea view was sold earlier this year for 11.6 million yuan, and some buyers are now willing to pay an additional 1 million yuan for similar units.

Factors such as property type and views, along with transaction costs, are also shaping buyer decisions. In Runfengfu, certain units that have met the conditions for tax exemption due to their ownership duration can save buyers over 300,000 yuan in taxes and fees, making them more attractive.

However, the shifting expectations are also influencing sellers' willingness to negotiate. Yu Lang observed that some sellers who were initially open to covering value-added tax have shifted their stance, now expecting buyers to absorb these costs. This change has led to deadlocks in negotiations in several Qianhai communities.

Despite the rising prices in some segments, the trend of price reductions remains prevalent among buyers. For example, a three-bedroom unit in Runfengfu that was listed at 12.8 million yuan last September has been reduced to 12.5 million yuan as of October 18 this year. Similarly, a four-bedroom unit that was initially priced at 23 million yuan has seen its price adjusted downwards twice, now listed at 20 million yuan. Another three-bedroom unit in Tianjing, originally priced at 15 million yuan in November 2025, has dropped to 12.88 million yuan by October 11 of this year.

In late May, Shell implemented a price adjustment system, resulting in over 62,000 price changes within four months. In September, the proportion of price increases reached about 15%, higher than the 12% recorded in July and August, yet price reductions continue to dominate the market.