Trump's quest to bring down gas prices ahead of the midterms is not going great

President Donald Trump is facing challenges in his efforts to lower the soaring gas prices as the midterm elections approach. In his speeches and social media communications, Trump has been trying to reassure voters that the cost of gas—a significant concern for many Americans dealing with rising living expenses—will decrease soon.

During an event at the White House on Friday, Trump reminisced about gas prices dropping below $2 per gallon in Iowa prior to the unexpected military actions by the US and Israel against Iran in February. "We'll be down to those levels soon," he stated, expressing optimism about future price reductions.

However, current data and ongoing global conflicts suggest a more complicated reality. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the average price for regular gasoline in the United States reached $4.36 per gallon as of Sunday, compared to $3.09 at the same time last year. Diesel fuel has also seen dramatic increases, peaking at $6.28 per gallon earlier this month.

On Monday morning, Brent crude oil, which serves as an international pricing benchmark, was trading approximately 2% lower at around $103 per barrel. This figure is over 40% higher than it was at the beginning of the Iran conflict but slightly lower than the prices seen a month ago when they exceeded $100 per barrel in early September.

The ongoing high prices for diesel fuel are particularly concerning. Despite the recent decline in crude oil prices, diesel costs remain elevated due to refinery bottlenecks and attacks on energy infrastructure in both the Middle East and Russia. These issues have resulted in reduced supplies of diesel, which is essential for transportation across various sectors, including trucking, shipping, and agriculture. Consequently, elevated transportation costs could continue to exert inflationary pressures on American households.

The political implications of persistently high diesel prices are significant as the midterm elections draw near, posing a challenge to Trump and other candidates. In an attempt to address the issue, Trump announced the suspension of fuel export sanctions on Russia, aiming to increase the availability of diesel in the market and reduce prices. This decision raised eyebrows among both allies and adversaries. Shortly after this announcement, Ukraine targeted a Russian oil depot.

On Sunday, Trump attempted to reassure oil markets by declaring an "ENERGY CEASEFIRE" between Russia and Ukraine on his Truth Social platform. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy indicated that he was unaware of any such agreement, stating his support for a ceasefire but noting that a Russian drone had struck a power plant in Kyiv on the same day.

Additionally, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have intensified, with Iran asserting its influence over this crucial shipping route, contributing to the rise in oil prices and subsequent gas price increases. Over the weekend, an oil tanker struck a mine in the Strait, resulting in a fire on board.

The conflict involving Iran is escalating as its allies launch attacks on Saudi Arabia, a key US ally, and its oil infrastructure. The Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have extended their control along the Red Sea coast and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, vital for Saudi oil exports. Last month, the group executed an attack from southeastern Iraq on a major Saudi oil pipeline, leading to a temporary shutdown of the facility.

In another incident, Houthi fighters attacked King Khalid International Airport on Saturday, resulting in 12 deaths and over 300 injuries, including the death of an American, as confirmed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Authorities were compelled to close the airport temporarily.

Given the current trajectory, it appears increasingly unlikely that oil prices will decrease sufficiently to ease the burden of high gas prices for Americans before they head to the polls in November.