Binance Needs to Buy Back Billions in Stolen Coins. Could Its Buying Lift Bitcoin?

Following a significant cyber theft linked to North Korea that resulted in billions being siphoned from Binance, the cryptocurrency exchange is now working diligently to replace the stolen coins before it can reopen withdrawals. The outcome of this initiative could have implications for Bitcoin's market performance, raising questions about whether it could signal a recovery or merely a temporary increase in price.

Richard Teng, the CEO of Binance, announced that the exchange has managed to recover 90% of the stolen assets. To address the remaining 10%, Binance intends to utilize its own funds. This situation has prompted Bitcoin holders to speculate whether the buyback efforts by Binance could potentially elevate Bitcoin's price.

As of October 31, 2026, Bitcoin was trading at $77,562, reflecting a 1.4% increase over the previous 24 hours. This uptick follows a slight decline to approximately $77,200 on October 30. While the recent rise is a positive sign, Bitcoin's value remains 38.5% lower than its peak of $126,080 recorded in October 2025. This raises the question: will Binance's buyback influence Bitcoin's price positively?

In its commitment to customer satisfaction, Binance must replace the stolen coins before it can lift the withdrawal freeze implemented on October 30. Teng indicated that withdrawals are set to resume on November 1. Co-founder Yi He revealed that Binance has allocated $6.34 billion from its corporate funds into a User Fund specifically aimed at compensating affected users.

This buyback essentially means that Binance is leveraging its existing resources, and once the shortfall is addressed, further purchases are unlikely. On October 30, the exchange reported that it held $5 billion worth of the tokens impacted by the theft. The remaining amount will be acquired through private transactions to minimize any market disruption.

Whale Alert, a service that tracks blockchain transactions, noted the movement of 7,499 BTC, valued at approximately $581 million, from the Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU). Binance confirmed that this transfer was a precautionary measure to protect its customers, involving coins already in the exchange's possession and not contributing to new market demand.

Yi He further stated that major cryptocurrencies such as BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, USDC, XRP, USD1, RLUSD, and ZEC are fully backed, indicating that Binance has sufficient reserves to meet customer withdrawals. With Bitcoin already accounted for, the focus of any remaining purchases will likely shift to smaller tokens. According to Lookonchain, the team behind Ethena (ENA) deposited 129 million ENA, valued at around $24 million, into Binance as part of the buyback process.

Despite the recent bounce in Bitcoin's price, it remains below its key moving averages. Currently, Bitcoin is trading beneath its 20-day simple moving average of approximately $81,300 and its 50-day average of around $81,900. While it is above its 200-day average of about $73,100, indicating a long-term upward trend, current market conditions suggest a need for caution.

The modest price recovery has been influenced by low trading volume over the weekend, which saw a 33.4% decrease in total crypto trading volume within 24 hours. Such reduced activity can cause price movements to be more pronounced with minimal buying. Furthermore, there has been a trend of large investors withdrawing from Bitcoin, as evidenced by spot Bitcoin ETFs experiencing outflows of about $643 million on October 30, surpassing the $581 million SAFU transfer.

In the last 24 hours, Ethereum rose by 1.0% to $2,255, XRP increased by 1.2% to $1.26, and Solana gained 1.8% to $96, with Solana outperforming Bitcoin's 1.4% rise.

Over the past month, Bitcoin has seen an 8.5% decline, while Ethereum, XRP, and Solana have dropped by 16.6%, 16.3%, and 18.9%, respectively, indicating that these cryptocurrencies may also need time to recover.

While the effects of Binance's buyback might not have a substantial impact on Bitcoin's price, the situation may play out differently for Ethereum and XRP. Elliptic reports that the hacker gained control of approximately 18,270 BTC, valued at around $1.42 billion, which constitutes about 2% of Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume. In contrast, around 519,000 ETH, valued at $1.17 billion, were stolen, making up about 20.2% of Ethereum's daily volume, while 233 million XRP, worth $292 million, represents 27% of XRP's volume. Although these percentages may appear inflated due to weekend trading volume reductions, any further actions by Binance or the hacker could have a more pronounced effect on Ethereum and XRP compared to Bitcoin.

Michael Saylor, a prominent Bitcoin advocate, expressed confidence on October 30, stating, "Binance has committed its own balance sheet to making customers whole. I expect it to deliver." However, those looking for a price boost from the buyback are relying on promises that Binance has yet to fulfill. The Proof of Reserves results, which are expected by November 2, are intended to demonstrate that Binance holds all customer assets.

While the buyback represents a crucial step in recovering stolen funds, it is unlikely to trigger a significant rally for Bitcoin, primarily because most of the coins involved were already part of Binance's reserves. If Bitcoin manages to close above approximately $81,300 following the reserve results, it could indicate a restoration of trust, while a close below around $77,200 would suggest that the recent 1.4% increase was merely a result of thin weekend trading. Thus, the effectiveness of Binance's buyback in boosting Bitcoin's price remains uncertain.

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